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Tracking Occupational Trends in the
New Millennium
A lot is going on below the
surface of Minnesota's evolving labor market.
Minnesota Economic Trends By
Dave Senf
While
job growth during the first seven years of the new millennium has slowed
compared with the robust pace of the late 1990s,
demand has been strong
for some occupations in Minnesota. The dynamic nature of the employment
market means that the
occupational mix of jobs in the state will
continue to shift no matter what the economy is doing.
Various forces affect job prospects, including demand for goods and
services, technological innovation, globalization, productivity
gains,
shifts in business practices and changes in laws.
The
changing family mealtime is a prime example of how shifting spending
habits reshape the workplace. Minnesotans spend
less time preparing
meals at home today than 10 years ago. Families are eating out more or
bringing more prepared or partially
prepared food home. This shift in
eating habits translates into expanded demand for food service managers,
chefs, cooks and
food-preparation workers.
In
another example of the evolving workforce, rising worker productivity
because of computers and automated machinery has
lowered the demand for
assemblers at Minnesota manufacturing companies. At the same time,
demand has increased for
workers who install or repair automation
equipment. The Internet has increased jobs for workers with information
technology
skills but has reduced demand for writers at newspapers,
which are cutting payrolls in response to lower revenues as advertising
dollars move to the Internet.
Increased demand for higher education is one factor in the growth in
post-secondary teaching positions. But just as important
is the use of
more part-time faculty at colleges. This switch is an example of a
change in business practice. Offshoring ¬¬
— moving jobs to sites outside
the United States — is another business trend that is affecting
Minnesota. A share of
Minnesota’s manufacturing job decline over the
last 10 years is likely related to offshoring, as businesses seek to be
closer
to markets and supplies, as well as to lower production costs.
Changes in laws can also influence the ebb and flow of occupations.
Stricter criminal sentencing guidelines put in place
10 years ago mean
more correctional facilities and staffing are needed. Accountants and
auditors can thank the heightened
regulatory climate and various new
accounting regulations for the jump in demand for their services over
the last few years.
So how
have the above factors shifted the occupational sands in Minnesota since
2000? Figures 1 and 2 summarize the
best available occupational data on
Minnesota’s job market since 2000. Figure 1 is based on a survey of
Minnesota employers
by the Minnesota Department of Employment and
Economic Development (DEED). The occupational data in Figure 2 was
collected in a survey of Minnesota employees by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure
1 shows Minnesota’s occupation mix over 22 major groups. The data in
Figure 1 are from the Occupational Employment
Statistics (OES) program,
which uses semi-annual surveys to produce employment and wage estimates
for about 800
occupation classifications. OES survey samples are drawn
from employers covered by the Unemployment Insurance (UI)
system. In
Minnesota about 6,000 employers participate in the survey each year.1
About 92 percent of all jobs in the state
are covered by the OES data;
the self-employed are excluded in the OES survey.
Food
preparation and serving-related jobs have expanded the fastest since
1999, according to the OES data, while
production jobs have slipped the
most. Major occupational groups with above-average growth include
high-skill,
high-paying positions in business and financial operations,
health care and technical fields, and low-skill, low-paid jobs
in food
preparation and serving and in personal care and service.

Figure
2 shows recent changes in Minnesota’s occupational mix at a greater
level of aggregation than the OES occupational
mix in Figure 1. Figure 2
data is based on the American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the
U.S. Census Bureau.
The American Community Survey is a nationwide survey
of households designed to replace the decennial long form in future
censuses. The survey provides annual estimates of demographic, housing,
social and economic characteristics for all states,
as well as for all
cities, counties, metropolitan areas and population groups of 65,000
people or more.2

Since the ACS surveys households about work, industry and occupational
status, the 8 percent of jobs in Minnesota that
are held by people who
are self-employed or working in jobs not covered by Unemployment
Insurance are, in theory, captured.
The level of occupational detail
available through the ACS is limited but will improve when the ACS is
fully implemented.
The occupational trends evident in the ACS data
correspond to the occupational trends identified in the OES data.
Employment in service and management, professional, and related
occupations is growing faster than overall employment.
Jobs in
production, transportation and materials-moving occupations, as a group,
have lagged behind overall employment.
Both
the OES and ACS data confirm that a lot is going on below the surface of
the Minnesota labor market. Job growth may
have slowed, but the ebbs and
flows of occupations continue. Just as some industries are growing and
others shrinking, the
same is happening with occupations, with some
expanding and others dropping off.
1For
more information on the OES program visit
http://www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/oes/default.aspx.
2More
information on the ACS is available at
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/.
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